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Assessments
Structured human-outcome assessment and causal pathway analysis.
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Assessment Overview
A — Decision & Alternatives
Define the decision, feasible alternatives, and the explicit reference counterfactual used for comparison.
A1 · Decision Definition
A2 · Alternatives
Alternatives are candidate courses of action. The reference counterfactual is defined separately below.
A3 · Reference Counterfactual
Describe the most plausible comparison world if the decision is not implemented. “No action” does not necessarily mean “no change.”
B — People & World-State Change
Define who may be affected, what changes in the world, and which populations are exposed to those changes.
B1 · Affected Populations
Identify materially relevant populations and make the assessment boundary explicit.
B2 · World-State Changes
Record intermediate changes in conditions. A world-state change is not automatically a human outcome.
B3 · Population–Change Relationships
Connect populations to the world-state changes they may experience. This establishes exposure; it does not yet assert a HOM outcome.
C — HOM Screening
Screen each population–change relationship separately for plausible favorable and adverse material pathways.
D — Pathways & Evidence
This module will preserve causal chains, evidence, assumptions, analytical level, and uncertainty.